Posted by Jon Adams on January 09, 2009 at 13:58:25:
In Reply to: Expert opinion from Jon, Bruce and whoever posted by Victor Birch on January 09, 2009 at 06:31:24:
I'll defer to Bruce on figuring the actual pace differential, but one thing IMO that would play a big variable in the calculation would be the runner's actual amount of training on hills comparable to those on the course. Naturally there will be a loss of pace while trying to maintain the same effort on the hills as on the "flats", but if there has been some preparation in dealing with the hills leading up to the marathon this decrease in pace could be minimal.....say 15 to 30 seconds? If the runner has done no pace work on the hills beforehand then I would not be surprised to find the pace drop by 45 to 90 seconds. Again, it would depend on what sort of hill training was done in the months leading up to the Marathon and of course that individual's strengths and weaknesses. This is also based on the runner trying to maintain an "even effort" from the 1st 10 miles thru the next 10 miles.
Whaddya think Bruce?
Good luck to everyone in the race, I'll see ya on the course!